In a new report for Forrester Research, Principal Analyst Sucharita Mulpuru predicts retailers can expect only 2 percent of online sales to take place via mobile devices. In a blog post about the research, Mulpuru called the amount "teeny" when compared to total retail shopping.

Mulpuru said that while mobile commerce is expected to grow by nearly 40 percent each year for the next five years, it will only make up 7 percent of total online retail by 2016, or approximately $31 billion.

In her post, Mulpuru said there are several reasons why mobile commerce may not be as large as many assume. First, Mulpuru said tablet devices are not included as mobile devices for the purposes of her research. She said that most owners of tablet also own smartphones but prefer to shop on the larger devices.

Mulpuru also said that shopping is not a primary activity for most consumers online, and that "it would be premature to expect that shopping would rank high on the list (of mobile activities.)" Additionally, Mulpuru said that most consumers, when using mobile phones in a retail context, are using the devices as a part of their shopping in a physical store, either to research products or to compare prices. She said those interactions don't add to m-commerce numbers.

All this isn't to say that mobile commerce isn't going to play an important role for merchants. Mulpuru said, "Mobile commerce will transform retail." Transparency of pricing will force big box retailers to be better merchants, she said, and smart retailers will empower customers to act as their own sales associates.