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Juniper, Yankee Group forecast huge growth in mobile transactions by 2015

Recent prediction about the future of mobile payments, and monster valuations of mobile payment companies, have some observers wondering if the industry is suffering from a severe case of hype. But research firms continue to forecast the growth of the mobile payment sector will be significant.

Mobile analysts Yankee Group released its Mobile Money Forecast last week, and its expectations for mobile transactions are massive. The report predicts the value of global mobile transactions will grow to $1 trillion by 2015 from $241 billion in 2011. That’s an annual growth rate of 56 percent. 

"We are on the cusp of a burgeoning mobile money marketplace, one where first movers will gain a significant strategic advantage," said Gigi Wang, chief research officer at Yankee Group, in a statement. 

Yankee Group said the enormous growth potential for mobile payments, along with 500 million mobile banking users around the world, presents an opportunity to companies in the mobile money ecosystem.

Among its other findings, Yankee Group reports the following key highlights: 

  • NFC-enabled phones will grow from just 7 million in 2011 to 203 million in 2015, a CAGR of 208 percent.
  • EMEA currently accounts for 41 percent of mobile transactions value, with North America at 35 percent, Asia-Pacific at 22 percent and Latin America at just 1 percent.
  • More respondents report using their mobile devices for mobile banking (27 percent) than m-commerce (13 percent), mobile coupons (11 percent) and mobile payments (9 percent).

Meanwhile, U.K. research firm Juniper Research released a new report predicting the total value of mobile payments, including the value of all merchandise purchased and money transferred, will reach $670 billion by 2015. While slightly lower than Yankee Group's $1 trillion estimate, Juniper still forecasts that every segment of the mobile payment market will see growth of two to three times by 2015

"Our analysis shows that emerging segments such as physical goods payments, NFC [near field communications] and money transfers will fuel market growth by a factor of 2.7 times by 2015,” said Juniper senior analyst David Snow. “Digital goods is the largest segment and, although forecast to more than double, it is not growing as quickly as some of the newer segments.”

Juniper's forecast also includes the following key predictions:

  • Combined transaction value for the Far East & China, Western Europe and North America will make up 75 percent of global mobile payment volume by 2015.
  • Purchases of digital goods account for 40 percent of the market in 2015.