If this week's National Retail Federation "Big Show" in New York didn't demonstrate the growing interest in mobile payments, with its multiple panel discussions and vendor booths dedicated to omnichannel commerce, perhaps a new report from research firm Forrester will add to evidence that mobile payments is, indeed, set to take off. According to Denee Carrington, lead author for the report, U.S. mobile payments will reach $90 billion in 2017 — that's a 48 percent compound annual growth rate from $12.8 billion spent in 2012.

Carrington's report divides mobile payments into three distinct categories: mobile proximity, mobile peer-to-peer and mcommerce. All three categories are set to take off in the next five years, but Carrington said mobile proximity payments, meaning in-store payments using mobile devices, will see the largest growth. In 2017, nearly half of all mobile payments will fall into this category, reaching $41 billion.

Mobile remittance, or P2P payments, however will fail to reach the same scale as proximity or mcommerce payments. Carrington said growth in remittance will mostly be in cross-border remittances, a area she said is "ripe for disruption."

That's not to say the rising tide of mobile payments will lift all boats. According to Carrington, would-be providers of ubiquitous mobile payment solutions are facing a tough market, consumers who aren't necessarily open to change and merchants who see mobile payments as one of many competing investment priorities. She said 2013 will be a pivotal year for the market.

"This year will mark the beginning of the end for some mobile payment solutions as competition heightens and expectations for economic outcomes rise," Carrington said. "But those that deliver value, convenience, and a clearly better alternative for both merchants and consumers will thrive as mobile payment adoption accelerates."

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