Juniper Research sees a 14% drop in global spending to $9.7 trillion on digital commerce, compared with $11.2 trillion a year ago, due to the impact of COVID-19. 

Juniper officials say the decrease will be driven by a massive slump in transportation, as digital ticketing for commercial airlines will drop about 59% from year-ago figures. The report says air travel will continue to struggle for about five years, as the pandemic will cause long-term problems with cash flow.

"Transport networks have witnessed massively reduced ridership at present, and this will not improve until lockdowns are ended," Nick Maynard, lead analyst at Juniper, told Mobile Payments Today via email. "Even after this, the financial shock of reduced revenues is a major challenge for the airline industry in particular and we anticipate that it will take significantly longer for that area to recover."

The report also sees permanent changes in consumer behavior, due to the COVID-19 related shift towards contactless payments and online grocery shopping.